Unheard Voices: Violent Protests in Democratic Countries and their Successes

Martina Bagnera, Riccardo Dal Cero, Camilla Meduri, Jeanne Vincendeau, and Anees Zappini

Abstract:

Violent protests are unconventional political processes that are not recognized by the United Nations as legitimately belonging to the right to freedom of expression. Although democracies offer many different opportunities for populations to raise concerns or hold leaders accountable, such as voting rights and plebiscites, sometimes citizens’ voices are not heard and the spaces left vacant by democracy’s shortcomings are supplanted by violence. It is a researched field with a paradoxical puzzle that deserves more academic attention. This study investigates ten different factors and their correlation with successful violent protests in democratic countries. Success is considered a relevant policy or leadership change. Logistic regression in R was used to analyze a dataset of 84 violent protests held between 2017 and 2024, with 26 successes. Since the amount of data available was limited, the results had low statistical significance, which opens the floor for further research. Out of the variables researched, three of them showed a statistical correlation with success outcomes. They accounted for all but two successes. This research concludes that, in democratic countries, violent protests conducted by historically minority groups, with complex demands, or under a government that is not left leaning, are the most likely to be successful. 

Bagnera et al_2025_Violent Protests in Democratic Countries and their Successes.pdf

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